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Non-life Level: Intermediate to Advanced

Ratemaking & Loss Reserving

การกำหนดอัตราเบี้ยประกันภัยและการสำรองค่าสินไหมทดแทน (ประกันวินาศภัย)

Deep dive into general insurance actuarial analytics: loss triangles, Chain-Ladder, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, frequency-severity models, and pure premium ratemaking.

Chain-Ladder (Loss Development) Projection
C^i,j=Ci,k∏m=kj−1fm\hat{C}_{i,j} = C_{i,k} \prod_{m=k}^{j-1} f_m

Course Registration & Inquiry

Available as individual mentorship, group cohort, or in-house corporate training tailored to your team's dataset.

Lecturer Yodharin Monplub
Format Online / On-site / Hybrid
Prerequisites Basic Statistics / Excel
Enroll via LINE (@actuarialtutor) Email Course Inquiry

Comprehensive Course Syllabus & Learning Modules

1

1. Overview of Ratemaking & Loss Reserving (ภาพรวม)

  • Role of general insurance actuaries in underwriting and solvency
  • Interplay between earned premiums, incurred losses, expenses, and underwriting profit
  • Accident Year, Policy Year, and Calendar Year accounting bases
2

2. Insurance Data Preparation and Analysis (การเตรียมข้อมูล)

  • Policy, premium, exposure, and claims transaction logs
  • Data cleansing, handling missing values, reporting lags, and outlier claims
  • Structuring incremental and cumulative run-off loss triangles
3

3. Fundamentals of Insurance Ratemaking (หลักการกำหนดอัตราเบี้ย)

  • Risk-based pricing principles and fair discrimination
  • Claim Frequency (Poisson/Negative Binomial) and Claim Severity (Gamma/Lognormal)
  • Expected Loss Cost (Pure Premium) calculation
  • Loss Ratio method vs Pure Premium method
4

4. Ratemaking Techniques & Adjustments (การปรับปรุงข้อมูลเบี้ย)

  • Trend analysis: loss cost trend, medical inflation, severity inflation
  • On-leveling historical premiums to current rate levels (Extension of Exposures & Parallelogram)
  • Expense loadings (fixed vs variable expenses, commission, tax, profit & contingencies)
5

5. Risk Classification & GLM Pricing (การจำแนกความเสี่ยง)

  • Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) for non-life pricing
  • Multi-tariff rating structure (Driver age, vehicle class, sum insured, deductible)
  • Credibility theory (Classical & Bühlmann credibility) in rate indications
6

6. Fundamentals of Loss Reserving (หลักการเงินสำรองสินไหม)

  • Case reserves, IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported), and IBNER (Incurred But Not Enough Reported)
  • Unearned Premium Reserve (UPR) and Premium Deficiency Reserve (PDR)
  • Actuarial standards of practice for non-life loss reserving
7

7. Loss Reserving Techniques (เทคนิคการประมาณการ)

  • Chain-Ladder (Loss Development Factor) technique on Paid and Incurred triangles
  • Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method
  • Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method combining prior expectations and development
  • Cape Cod (Stanard-Bühlmann) method and tail factor estimation
8

8. Reserve Uncertainty & Monitoring (การติดตามผลและความไม่แน่นอน)

  • Mack's method for estimation of reserve prediction errors and variance
  • Bootstrapping loss triangles for stochastic reserve distribution
  • Reserve diagnostic testing and actual vs expected run-off tracking
9

9. Business Applications (การประยุกต์ใช้ในธุรกิจ)

  • Reinsurance optimization and treaty performance analysis
  • Portfolio profitability monitoring and underperforming segment turnaround
  • Regulatory reporting to the Office of Insurance Commission (OIC)
10

10. Workshops (การฝึกปฏิบัติ)

  • Building an end-to-end reserving triangle model in Excel and Python
  • Motor and health insurance GLM pricing workshop
  • Writing an Actuarial Reserve Report compliant with industry standards